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In 2001 I just got a new job supporting the British market from the overseas headquarter of the international signalling supplier I worked for at the time. We got visited by an advisor to the client to talk about ETCS (the European Train Control System, in case you did not know that acronym yet), and me and my colleagues had the clear remit to promote ETCS Level 1. That was not because Level 1 was superior to Level 2, quite the contrary. But back then we did not have an own product for a Radio Block Centre, and without that our offering for ETCS Level 2 had a critical component missing.

How disappointing was it when the guests from London made very clear that they did not have the slightest interest in introducing ETCS Level 1 to their network, because “there is no business case for that”. Wait, but what about the safety improvements that ETCS would surely bring, even in Level 1? “Well, see, we have TPWS now and that takes care of the safety side of things.”

For background, TPWS is the Train Protection and Warning System that was rolled out across the entire British rail network in the late 1990s. A system that was originally meant to control selective door opening and was now bastardised as a rather simple system for Automatic Train Protection (ATP). As it turned out, the assessment in Britain was that TPWS could prevent some 85% of all signal overruns that could lead to accidents, and the additional protection that ETCS could provide, Level 1 or Level 2 alike, would not justify the investment in ETCS on safety merits alone.

Yes, in case you did not know, the prevention of accidents can be costed in economic appraisals for business cases. One estimates an average number of light injuries, heavy injuries and fatalities per accident, and there are costs associated with each of those events. Then it is estimated how many accidents may be prevented by the new ATP system and you get a quantitative figure for the benefit from that safety improvement.

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